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Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!bonnie!akgua!sdcsvax!hu
From: hu@sdcsvax.UUCP (T. C. Hu)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: poll
Message-ID: <680@sdcsvax.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 13-Feb-85 00:10:46 EST
Article-I.D.: sdcsvax.680
Posted: Wed Feb 13 00:10:46 1985
Date-Received: Thu, 14-Feb-85 02:53:09 EST
References: <527@decwrl.UUCP>
Reply-To: hu@sdcsvax.UUCP (T. C. hu)
Organization: EECS Dept. U.C. San Diego
Lines: 39
Summary: 


Kudos to Daniel Schneider for a well-worded question.

[This is strictly fantasy.  Any resemblence to anything real is
purely coincidental.  CBS executives have been created for dramatic effect.]
If the United States were to abondon all nuclear weapons, initially,
everything would be wonderful.  The Soviet Union would immediately
make a similar statement (We beat them in the PR game.), and the world
would applaud.  The U.S. economy would boom as huge amounts of capital
are freed to do productive things.  Everything would be peachy.

At some point, though, the economy would start to falter.  Not enough
resources would reach our factories.  We would find ourselves having a
hard time getting oil or strategic minerals.  More and more countries
would adopt stances hostile to the U.S. (and pro-Soviet, since they
have a far superior conventional military presence that can pressure
little governments out of the way) (Diplomacy works wonders when you
have nothing to promise the country you want to bargain with.  We won't
have the big stick to back us up anymore.  We'll just have to beg for
compassion.).  At some point, the failing economy would drive the U.S.
to war (as failing economies are wont to do) in order to "protect our
vital interests".  The Soviets would protect their vital interests and
we would have a limited war in some place like South Africa.  The war
will drag on for a long time:  neither side will be able to produce a
major victory against the other.  As the Soviet economy collapses under
the strain of a protracted war, the Soviet leaders will get desperate,
(surprise) unveil a handful of ICBMs (hiding things like that is much
easier in a totalitarian state without a free press to go sniveling
around dredging up dark secrets), and threaten to take out a couple of
U.S. cities unless the U.S. withdraws.  The U.S. will have to withdraw,
its economy will collapse, and the people will riot (when they get
hungry enough).  Someone (probably from the military) will stage a coup
(promising to restore the greatness of the U.S.A.), establish martial
law, and everything will be just beautiful.  ("You are hereby accused
of crimes against the state.  We must execute you in the name of truth,
justice, and the American way.")

					Alan J. Hu
					sdcsvax!hu