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From: wcs@ho95b.UUCP (59577)
Newsgroups: net.followup,net.politics
Subject: Re: Star Wars Defense Plan
Message-ID: <189@ho95b.UUCP>
Date: Tue, 21-Aug-84 19:21:16 EDT
Article-I.D.: ho95b.189
Posted: Tue Aug 21 19:21:16 1984
Date-Received: Wed, 22-Aug-84 01:44:53 EDT
References: <966@ulysses.UUCP>, <363@vu44.UUCP>
Organization: AT&T Bell Labs, Holmdel NJ
Lines: 42

Well, I'm against Star Wars too, but there are some strategic
purposes for it that are more realistic than trying to stop an
all-out attack.  Consider several possible scenarios for a war:

	- All-out attack by Russia: 5000 warheads from MIRVed ICBMs,
	  100-1000 cruise missiles, 1000-5000 warheads in bombers, etc.
		This scenario has been beaten to death already,
		but remember that bombers and cruise missles are
		a credible threat too.
	
	- "Poker"-style war: Land-based war in Germany or Palestine,
	  followed by tactical nuclear warheads; both sides
	  threaten to escalate and shoot a few ICBMs just to
	  show they're serious;  six months or so of conflict
	  followed by either surrender or Armageddon.

  The latter scenario is one that military planners seem to be
  considering seriously; it's a level of conflict somewhere
  between conventional war and suicide, and one that either side
  might risk rather than lose a major conventional war.  A 95%
  effective defense may not help much against 10,000 warheads,
  but against a few dozen missles it reduces the damage to
  "acceptable" levels.  (If we're talking about total
  destruction of Europe, the government might be willing to risk
  an additional 20 or 30 million Americans).

  What the Star Wars defense does is give the military (from
  their perspective) a more flexible response to situations of
  major conflict, a more credible deterrent against Russian
  attacks, and a margin of security in case things start to get
  out of hand.   Unfortunately, this makes them more willing to
  risk a major war, especially if there is a period of imbalance
  while one side has it and the other doesn't.

  On the Nuclear Winter issue: wasn't it nice when all we had 
  to worry about was radiation poisoning?

			Cheers;   Bill
-- 
				Bill Stewart
				AT&T Bell Labs, Holmdel NJ
				...!ihnp4!ho95b!wcs