Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site ho95b.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!ulysses!mhuxl!ihnp4!houxm!ho95b!wcs From: wcs@ho95b.UUCP (59577) Newsgroups: net.followup,net.politics Subject: Re: Star Wars Defense Plan Message-ID: <189@ho95b.UUCP> Date: Tue, 21-Aug-84 19:21:16 EDT Article-I.D.: ho95b.189 Posted: Tue Aug 21 19:21:16 1984 Date-Received: Wed, 22-Aug-84 01:44:53 EDT References: <966@ulysses.UUCP>, <363@vu44.UUCP> Organization: AT&T Bell Labs, Holmdel NJ Lines: 42 Well, I'm against Star Wars too, but there are some strategic purposes for it that are more realistic than trying to stop an all-out attack. Consider several possible scenarios for a war: - All-out attack by Russia: 5000 warheads from MIRVed ICBMs, 100-1000 cruise missiles, 1000-5000 warheads in bombers, etc. This scenario has been beaten to death already, but remember that bombers and cruise missles are a credible threat too. - "Poker"-style war: Land-based war in Germany or Palestine, followed by tactical nuclear warheads; both sides threaten to escalate and shoot a few ICBMs just to show they're serious; six months or so of conflict followed by either surrender or Armageddon. The latter scenario is one that military planners seem to be considering seriously; it's a level of conflict somewhere between conventional war and suicide, and one that either side might risk rather than lose a major conventional war. A 95% effective defense may not help much against 10,000 warheads, but against a few dozen missles it reduces the damage to "acceptable" levels. (If we're talking about total destruction of Europe, the government might be willing to risk an additional 20 or 30 million Americans). What the Star Wars defense does is give the military (from their perspective) a more flexible response to situations of major conflict, a more credible deterrent against Russian attacks, and a margin of security in case things start to get out of hand. Unfortunately, this makes them more willing to risk a major war, especially if there is a period of imbalance while one side has it and the other doesn't. On the Nuclear Winter issue: wasn't it nice when all we had to worry about was radiation poisoning? Cheers; Bill -- Bill Stewart AT&T Bell Labs, Holmdel NJ ...!ihnp4!ho95b!wcs