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From: ags@pucc-i (Seaman)
Newsgroups: net.sport.baseball
Subject: Re: Tigers' magic number
Message-ID: <387@pucc-i>
Date: Mon, 6-Aug-84 15:30:45 EDT
Article-I.D.: pucc-i.387
Posted: Mon Aug  6 15:30:45 1984
Date-Received: Wed, 8-Aug-84 19:18:57 EDT
References: <1435@ucbvax.UUCP> <380@pucc-i> <559@noscvax.UUCP>
Organization: Purdue University Computing Center
Lines: 29

>	Quoted from the '84 Detroit Tigers Score Book and Official Program:
>
>	"To determine the 'magic number' in a pennant race, compute
>	the number ot games yet to be played, add one, then subract 
>	the number of games ahead in the loss column of the standings,
>	from the closest opponent."

If you apply that formula today, it tells you what Detroit needs to finish
ahead of Toronto in the final standings.  It does not guarantee that Detroit
will finish any higher than sixth (with Toronto seventh).

Incidentally, there is an even easier formula:

	Magic Number = GS + 1 - W1 - L2

where:	GS = games in season = 162
	W1 = games won by first-place team
	L2 = games lost by second-place team.

The "official" version appears to involve L1 (= games lost by first-place
team), but this number appears twice and cancels out:

	"Official" Magic Number = (Games Left) + 1 - (Difference in Losses)
				= (GS - W1 - L1) + 1 - (L2 - L1)
				= GS + 1 - W1 - L2.
-- 

Dave Seaman			My hovercraft is no longer full of 
..!pur-ee!pucc-i:ags		eels (thanks to my confused cat).