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From: eder@ssc-vax.UUCP (Dani Eder)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Soviet arms control violations
Message-ID: <41@ssc-vax.UUCP>
Date: Wed, 8-Aug-84 14:05:18 EDT
Article-I.D.: ssc-vax.41
Posted: Wed Aug  8 14:05:18 1984
Date-Received: Fri, 10-Aug-84 01:57:40 EDT
References: <148@whuxl.UUCP>
Organization: Boeing Aerospace, Seattle
Lines: 72

[7 August 1984]

[from the July 23, 1984 issue of 'Military Space', an industry newsletter]

'ACDA:  Soviets deceiving U. S. surveillance'

     A high-level study of Soviet arms control violations has disclosed
a major Soviet program, initiated during the US/Soviet SALT I talks, to
deceive US surveillance and reconnaissance systems used to verify Soviet
SALT-related behavior.  The study's findings may have a significant bearing
on future US surveillance planning, as well as US willingness to negotiate
space arms control agreements with the Soviets.

     The study, which has not been released, was undertaken by the General
Advisory Committee (GAC) of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA)
following a Nov. 19,1982 directive from President Reagan to evaluate
Soviet observance of arms control agreements since 1945.  The study
reviewed verification and compliance issues to distill 'lessons learned'
for future US policy.  Completed in late 1983, its findings were given
to the President on June 11.

     A copy of the breifing, made available to MILITARY SPACE, reveals
the following:

     *  Soviet behavior constituted "material breaches" of half the
agreements they signed, covering nuclear and non-nuclear forces.  Of
25 arms control treaties, nine involved such breaches, with four
additional breaches in oral commitments (such as the Brezhnev promise
not to deploy more SS-20s targeted against Europe, Japan, and the US.).
Of 17 material breaches, 13 began in or after 1972, when SALT I was
ratified, with seven involving SALT.  Ten other suspected breaches
were considered, of which "several could have major military significance."

     *  SALT II non-compliance areas included illegal deployments of
SS-16 ICBMs (described as "indeed deployed") and the new SS-X-25
("clearly a second new type" violating the one-new-type rule of SALT II).
The "peculiar properties" of Soviet violations since SALT II include
their initiation "at about the time of the SALT II agreement" and their
being done "in a fashion which should at least have caused US suspicion."

     *  The soviets also violated SALT I obligations fto dismantle older
ICBMs and sub-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), exceeded limits on
missile subs in 1976-1977 and conclusively violated SALT I ABM (anti-
ballistic missile) Treaty limits on ABM radars.

     *  The Soviets negotiated deceptively in SALT I and II and "sign
...arms control treaties they are planning to violate."  The 1972
Biological Weapons (BW) Treaty was followed by a major expansion in 
1972-1975 of Soviet BW facilities, while the Soviets submitted a
false data base for the SS-16 in SALT II negotiations.

     *  Soviet concealment and deception programs are centrally
managed and now include encryption.  SS-X-25 flight tests are now
encrypted [de: refers to the data sent from missile, this is a treaty
violation], while SS-16 equipment is put under roofs when "US intelligence
platforms are near," presumably satellites.  However, snow tracks reaveal
that SS-16 activity is occuring.  These Soviet practices "(have been)
increasing through the SALT process."

     *  The US "attempted to obtain...data to show innocence...in 
SS-X-25 and SS-16 cases but failed."  Similar failure occured over
suspected Soviet violations of the Theshold Test Ban Treaty.

...[de: article continues.  Talks about a department in the Soviet
Ministry of Defense whose purpose was deception and whose manager
was the senior military member of the SALT I delegation, General
N. V. Ogarkov.  Also mentions that Soviets reportedly attacked a
US digital imaging satellite inearly 1983]

Dani Eder / Boeing Aerospace Company / ssc-vax!eder

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