Relay-Version: version B 2.10 5/3/83; site utzoo.UUCP Posting-Version: version B 2.10.1 6/24/83; site ssc-vax.UUCP Path: utzoo!watmath!clyde!burl!mgnetp!ihnp4!houxm!houxz!vax135!cornell!uw-beaver!ssc-vax!eder From: eder@ssc-vax.UUCP (Dani Eder) Newsgroups: net.politics Subject: Soviet arms control violations Message-ID: <41@ssc-vax.UUCP> Date: Wed, 8-Aug-84 14:05:18 EDT Article-I.D.: ssc-vax.41 Posted: Wed Aug 8 14:05:18 1984 Date-Received: Fri, 10-Aug-84 01:57:40 EDT References: <148@whuxl.UUCP> Organization: Boeing Aerospace, Seattle Lines: 72 [7 August 1984] [from the July 23, 1984 issue of 'Military Space', an industry newsletter] 'ACDA: Soviets deceiving U. S. surveillance' A high-level study of Soviet arms control violations has disclosed a major Soviet program, initiated during the US/Soviet SALT I talks, to deceive US surveillance and reconnaissance systems used to verify Soviet SALT-related behavior. The study's findings may have a significant bearing on future US surveillance planning, as well as US willingness to negotiate space arms control agreements with the Soviets. The study, which has not been released, was undertaken by the General Advisory Committee (GAC) of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) following a Nov. 19,1982 directive from President Reagan to evaluate Soviet observance of arms control agreements since 1945. The study reviewed verification and compliance issues to distill 'lessons learned' for future US policy. Completed in late 1983, its findings were given to the President on June 11. A copy of the breifing, made available to MILITARY SPACE, reveals the following: * Soviet behavior constituted "material breaches" of half the agreements they signed, covering nuclear and non-nuclear forces. Of 25 arms control treaties, nine involved such breaches, with four additional breaches in oral commitments (such as the Brezhnev promise not to deploy more SS-20s targeted against Europe, Japan, and the US.). Of 17 material breaches, 13 began in or after 1972, when SALT I was ratified, with seven involving SALT. Ten other suspected breaches were considered, of which "several could have major military significance." * SALT II non-compliance areas included illegal deployments of SS-16 ICBMs (described as "indeed deployed") and the new SS-X-25 ("clearly a second new type" violating the one-new-type rule of SALT II). The "peculiar properties" of Soviet violations since SALT II include their initiation "at about the time of the SALT II agreement" and their being done "in a fashion which should at least have caused US suspicion." * The soviets also violated SALT I obligations fto dismantle older ICBMs and sub-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), exceeded limits on missile subs in 1976-1977 and conclusively violated SALT I ABM (anti- ballistic missile) Treaty limits on ABM radars. * The Soviets negotiated deceptively in SALT I and II and "sign ...arms control treaties they are planning to violate." The 1972 Biological Weapons (BW) Treaty was followed by a major expansion in 1972-1975 of Soviet BW facilities, while the Soviets submitted a false data base for the SS-16 in SALT II negotiations. * Soviet concealment and deception programs are centrally managed and now include encryption. SS-X-25 flight tests are now encrypted [de: refers to the data sent from missile, this is a treaty violation], while SS-16 equipment is put under roofs when "US intelligence platforms are near," presumably satellites. However, snow tracks reaveal that SS-16 activity is occuring. These Soviet practices "(have been) increasing through the SALT process." * The US "attempted to obtain...data to show innocence...in SS-X-25 and SS-16 cases but failed." Similar failure occured over suspected Soviet violations of the Theshold Test Ban Treaty. ...[de: article continues. Talks about a department in the Soviet Ministry of Defense whose purpose was deception and whose manager was the senior military member of the SALT I delegation, General N. V. Ogarkov. Also mentions that Soviets reportedly attacked a US digital imaging satellite inearly 1983] Dani Eder / Boeing Aerospace Company / ssc-vax!eder n