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From: medin@ucbvax.UUCP (Milo Medin)
Newsgroups: net.politics
Subject: Re: Nuclear Winter and Nuclear Freeze (second try)
Message-ID: <1447@ucbvax.UUCP>
Date: Sat, 28-Jul-84 21:35:54 EDT
Article-I.D.: ucbvax.1447
Posted: Sat Jul 28 21:35:54 1984
Date-Received: Mon, 30-Jul-84 01:18:11 EDT
References: <650@teltone.UUCP> <1854@randvax.UUCP>
Organization: U.C. Berkeley
Lines: 61


I agree.  The Nuclear Winter scenario is only a theory,
and while more studies need to be done, I wouldnt count
on it being true, and certainly not count on anyone
in a position of power believing it.  I talked to a 
friend of mine who works at Lawrence Livermore the other
day about it, and he doubts its validity.  He said the
entire report is based on the fact that huge firestorms
would be started and pour tons of soot into the air.
He noted that the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and
Nagasaki didnt start any firestorms, that is, the flash
started many fires, but the blast blew them out just as
quickly.  The Soviet Union has always believed that
a nuclear war is winnable, and trains it personell in tactics
that are used in an integrated battlefield.  Their forces
are postured in a way that supports this doctrine,
and while propaganda says one thing, its purely for
external consumption.  Their military doctrine points to
something else entirely.

Another point that seems very interesting to me is that
many people feel the world is much more insecure (in a 
strategic nuclear sense) than it was 4 years ago.
Nothing could be farther from the case. When Carter
took office, the Soviets felt him out, first it was the
little things, then more and more.  During the Carter
administration we saw African countries turn communist,
Nicarauga fall, and then the invasion of Afghanistan.
It was a slow steady escalation, always feeling Washington out.
When in the early stages, they felt no opposition, they became
bolder and bolder, and the situation escalated more and more,
until the Afghanistan affair.  Reagan on the other hand,
opposed them in every arena right from the start, and even took
the initiative in Grenada.  The Soviets looked and saw that
the U.S. would not allow them to be unopposed, and became
very cautious.  Look at how the cubans left Nicarauga after
the Grenada invaision, like rats leaving a sinking ship.
The Soviets are very conservative and will not move unless they
have an extremely good chance of going unopposed.  They
do not have that chance with Reagan, and therefore will not
move nearly as boldly.  There is a theory in political
science that war is the result of an ambiguity is
power distribution.  As long as people are sure of who
is strongest (in terms of will as well), there will be no hot
war.  Now picture what might have happened if Carter had been
reelected.  The Soviets, seeing no opposition, continue
to expand the number and magnitude of their military activities.
They decide Washington wont act, and move into the middle east in
some place like Iran.  Carter seeing massive Allied pressure
and pressure from Congress and the people decides to finally
put his foot down and sends in troops.  We have superpower
confrontation and escalation into God knows what.  I see the
world in a much better way than the Freeze people do.  Things
just aren't that simple.


				Milo Medin
				...!ucbvax!medin
				medin@ucbarpa